Forecast Project Analysis #1

Part III:Ê Calculating Error of your forecasts: 
Compare your forecasted values for each day with the actual observations to determine how accurate your forecasts were. For each temperature value, determine the difference between the forecasted value and observed value. Example:  	
Your forecasted temperature: 56 
Observed temperature: 62 
Error: 6 degrees 

Accuracy of Temperature Forecasts: 
Calculate the average error in your temperature forecasts by summing up all the differences and dividing by the total number of temperature forecasts made. 
Average Error equals the sum of degrees error divided by the total days forecasted

Accuracy of Precipitation Forecasts: 
For analyzing the precipitation forecasts, how many days did you make a correct forecast? Compute your percentage of accuracy by dividing the number of correct precipitation forecasts by the total number of forecasts made. 
Percent accuracy equals the number of correct forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts.
Then multiply that answer by one hundred. 

Part IV:Ê Analyzing the Data:

When answering the following questions, consult the observations you took for each day that was forecasted. Consider factors like: Cloud Cover, Winds, Dew point temperature, High orÊ low pressure centers, Fronts, or other weather features that may have played a role in your missed forecasts. 
Use data to back up your answers.

Comparing the 1st DayÕs Forecast with the last DayÕs Forecast:
How did the accuracy of your temperature forecast compare for each day? 
How did the accuracy of your precipitation forecasts compare for each day? 
Use the calculated numbers to back up your results. Ê
 
Why were there errors in predicting weather conditions?
In your answers to the following questions, consult the observations you took for each day. Consider factors like cloud cover, winds, dew point temperatures, high or low pressure centers, fronts or other weather features that may have played a role in your missed forecasts.
During what types of weather conditions were your forecasts most accurate?
During which weather conditions did your values have the greatest margins of error?
Where were the largest inaccuracies/accuracies?
Why do you think the inaccuracy/accuracies occurred?

Future Forecasts:
What can you do differently to improve your next forecast? What information do you need to look at that you may not have before?