Forecast Project Analysis

Part III:Ê Calculating Error of your forecasts: 
Compare your forecasted values for each day with the actual observations to determine how accurate your forecasts were. For each temperature value, determine the difference between the forecasted value and observed value. 
Example:  	
Your forecasted temperature: 56 
Observed temperature: 62 
Error: 6 degrees 

Accuracy of Temperature Forecasts: 
Calculate the average error in your temperature forecasts by summing up all the differences and dividing by the total number of temperature forecasts made. 
Avg Error = sum of degrees error divided by the total number of days forecasted 

Accuracy of Precipitation Forecasts: 
For analyzing the precipitation forecasts, how many days did you make a correct forecast? Compute your percentage of accuracy by dividing the number of correct precipitation forecasts by the total number of forecasts made. 
percent accuracy = number of correct forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts
Then multiply that answer by 100.

Part IV:Ê Analyzing the Data:

When answering the following questions, consult the observations you took for each day that was forecasted. Consider factors like: Cloud Cover, Winds, Dew point temperatures, High orÊ low pressure centers, Fronts, rr other weather features that may have played a role in your missed forecasts. 
Use data to back up your answers.

Comparing Day 1 Forecast with Day 4 Forecast of your last forecast:
How did the accuracy of your temperature forecast compare for day 1 and day 4? 
How did the accuracy of your precipitation forecasts compare for day 1 and day 4? 
Use the calculated numbers to back up your results. Ê

Comparing Day 2 Forecasts with Day 5 of your last forecast:
How did the accuracy of your forecast for day 2 compare with your forecast for day 5? 
How did the accuracy of your precipitation forecasts compare for day 2 with your forecast for day 5? 
Use the calculated numbers to back up your results. 

Comparing Day 3 Forecasts with Day 6 of your last forecast:
How did the accuracy of your forecast for day 3 compare with your forecast for day 6? 
How did the accuracy of your precipitation forecasts compare for day 3 with your forecast for day 6? 
Use the calculated numbers to back up your results. 

Comparing 4th, 5th & 6th Forecasts with 1st, 2nd and 3rd Forecasts
How did the accuracy of your 4th Ð 6th forecasts compare with the accuracy of your 1st Ð 3rd forecasts? 
Use the calculated numbers to back up your results. 
 
Why Were There Errors in Predicting Weather Conditions? 
During what types of weather conditions were your forecasts most accurate? During which weather conditions did your values have the greatest margins of error? When answering these questions, consult the observations you took for each day that was forecasted. Consider factors like: - Cloud Cover - Winds - Dew point temperatures - High orÊ low pressure centers - Fronts - Or other weather features that may have played a role in your missed forecasts.  

Why were there errors in predicting weather conditions?
In your answers to the following questions, consult the observations you took for each day. Consider factors like cloud cover, winds, dew point temperatures, high or low pressure centers, fronts or other weather features that may have played a role in your missed forecasts.
During what types of weather conditions were your forecasts most accurate?
During which weather conditions did your values have the greatest margins of error?
Where were the largest inaccuracies/accuracies?
Why do you think the inaccuracy/accuracies occurred?


Final Analysis: 
ÊWrite up a final analysis about your forecast. Here are some final questions to consider: 
Ê1.  Did you show improved accuracy in your forecasts after completing several forecasts? 
Ê2. What issues did you learn about weather forecasting that you did not know before hand?